Travel Stats Man

Pilots are Exposed to the Equivalent of 75 Chest X-Rays per Year

I fly a lot.

I remember when I first started travelling significantly, on one flight a woman sitting next to me told me of her worries about the radiation she would be exposed to during the long flight.

The thought lingered in my mind for a few seconds, but I never thought any more of it.

Until a friend posed this question over dinner a few nights ago…

Methodology

I looked at radiation doses using data from radiologyinfo.org (via The Guardian) and compared it to findings from a number of studies investigating radiation exposure during commercial airline flights.

Results

Radiation dosages

Let’s start by looking at radiation guidelines, and set some points of reference to make this data more quantifiable.

Event	Radiation reading, millisievert (mSv)
Single dose, fatal within weeks	10,000
Typical doseage recorded in those Chernobyl workers who died within a month	6,000
Single does which would kill half of those exposed to it within a month	5,000
Single doseage which would cause radiation sickness, including nausea, lower white blood cell count. Not fatal	1,000
Accumulated doseage estimated to cause a fatal cancer many years later in 5% of people	1,000
Max radiation levels recorded at Fukushima plant yesterday, per hour	400
Exposure of Chernobyl residents who were relocated after the blast in 1986	350
Recommended limit for radiation workers every five years	100
Lowest annual dose at which any increase in cancer is clearly evident	100
CT scan: heart	16
CT scan: abdomen & pelvis	15
Dose in full-body CT scan	10
Natural radiation we’re all exposed to, per year	2
CT scan: head	2
Spine x-ray	1.5
Radiation per hour detected at Fukushimia site, 12 March	1.015
Mammogram breast x-ray	0.4
Chest x-ray	0.1
Dental x-ray	0.005

Download data.

The scientific unit of measurement for whole body radiation dose, called “effective dose,” is the millisievert (mSv).

Most routine x-rays expose us to very low levels of radiation. A dental x-ray exposes a patient to 0.005 mSv. Putting this into context, the lowest annual dose at which any increase in cancer is clearly evident is 100 mSv, or 20,000 dental x-rays.

Radiation exposure during flying

Route	mSv per 100 block hours	mSv per 1 hour
Seattle to Portland	0.03	0.0003
New York to Chicago	0.39	0.0039
Los Angeles to Honolulu	0.26	0.0026
London to New York	0.51	0.0051
Athens to New York	0.63	0.0063
Tokyo to New York	0.55	0.0055

Download data.

Based on studies, the radiation dose rate on 6 typical commercial airline flights at an altitude of 35,000 feet varies between 0.0003 mSV and 0.00055 per hour (mean average = 0.0004 msv). It is important to note that radiation dose levels represent a complex function of duration of flight, latitude, and altitude.

That said, assuming the average flight times from the route data from my post: The Worlds Shortest Commercial Flight. 2 Minutes to Fly 3 Kilometres, the graph and table below show estimated radiation exposure for the 38 longest (by time) routes.

Download chart.

Rank (mSv)	From	To	Distance km	Scheduled duration	Radiation dose (mSv)
1	Auckland	Doha	14,524	17:35:00	0.0070
2	Auckland	Dubai	14,203	17:15:00	0.0069
3	Dallas/Fort Worth	Sydney	13,804	16:55:00	0.0068
3	San Francisco	Singapore	13,593	16:55:00	0.0068
5	Johannesburg	Atlanta	13,582	16:40:00	0.0067
6	Dubai-International	Los Angeles	13,420	16:35:00	0.0066
7	Abu Dhabi	Los Angeles	13,502	16:30:00	0.0066
7	Jeddah	Los Angeles	13,409	16:30:00	0.0066
9	Doha	Los Angeles	13,367	16:25:00	0.0066
10	San Francisco	Singapore	13,593	16:20:00	0.0065
10	Dubai-International	Houston-Intercontinental	13,144	16:20:00	0.0065
10	Dallas/Fort Worth	Hong Kong	13,072	16:20:00	0.0065
10	Abu Dhabi	Dallas/Fort Worth	12,962	16:20:00	0.0065
10	Doha	Houston-Intercontinental	12,951	16:20:00	0.0065
10	Dubai-International	Dallas/Fort Worth	12,940	16:20:00	0.0065
10	Doha	Dallas/Fort Worth	12,764	16:20:00	0.0065
17	Abu Dhabi	San Francisco	13,128	16:15:00	0.0065
18	New York	Guangzhou	12,878	16:05:00	0.0064
18	New York	Guangzhou	12,878	16:05:00	0.0064
18	Johannesburg	New York	12,825	16:05:00	0.0064
18	Mumbai	Newark	12,565	16:05:00	0.0064
22	New York	Hong Kong	12,983	16:00:00	0.0064
22	New York	Hong Kong	12,983	16:00:00	0.0064
22	New York	Hong Kong	12,983	16:00:00	0.0064
22	Newark	Hong Kong	12,980	16:00:00	0.0064
26	Houston-Intercontinental	Taipei	12,776	15:55:00	0.0064
26	Mumbai	Newark	12,565	15:55:00	0.0064
28	Dubai-International	San Francisco	13,041	15:50:00	0.0063
28	Newark	Hong Kong	12,980	15:50:00	0.0063
28	Boston	Hong Kong	12,827	15:50:00	0.0063
28	Los Angeles	Melbourne	12,748	15:50:00	0.0063
28	Los Angeles	Melbourne	12,748	15:50:00	0.0063
28	Los Angeles	Melbourne	12,748	15:50:00	0.0063
34	Toronto	Hong Kong	12,569	15:35:00	0.0062
35	Toronto	Hong Kong	12,569	15:30:00	0.0062
35	Toronto	Hong Kong	12,569	15:30:00	0.0062
35	New York	Taipei	12,566	15:30:00	0.0062
38	New York	Taipei	12,566	15:20:00	0.0061

View calculations.

The mean average mSv for the 38 longest flights by time, with durations between 15:20 and 17:35, is 0.0064 mSv. Put another way, just under 6.5% of the radiation you would receive from a chest x-ray. The longest flight by time, Auckland to Doha at 17 hours 35 minutes, exposes passengers to and estimated 0.007 mSV, which is about 0.32% of the average radiation you would be exposed to each year naturally.

Frequent flyers

In 2017, business traveler Tom Stuker became the world’s most frequent flyer, logging 18,000,000 miles (28,968,192 km) of air travel on United Airlines over the last 14 years — that’s 722.8 times (51.6 times per year) around the world (assuming 40,075 km equatorial circumference of earth)!

Assuming an average flight speed (550 mph), Stuker’s 18,000,000 miles would translate into 32,727 hours (2337.6 hours per year) of flight time or 212 mSv (15.12 mSv per year) of radiation. About the same as a CT scan of your abdomen and pelvis each year.

Most pilots typically log under 1,000 hours per year so airline workers would have risk levels about half that of Stuker’s (less than 7.5 mSv per year).

tl;dr

Even if you’re a frequent flyer, the risk from radiation to your health is low. Pilots are exposed to no more than 7.5 mSv per year, equivalent to 75 chest x-rays, well below the lowest annual dose at which any increase in cancer is clearly evident (100 mSv).

Footnotes

Data sources + data used in this post.

The World’s Most Visited Tourist Attractions

I’ve lived in London, Hong Kong and San Francisco. At certain times during the year I found myself with a heightened sense of awareness as tourists descended upon the cities, stopping abruptly to take a photo or to pull out their phone to get their bearings.

I’m almost positive these cities are amongst the most popular with tourists, but I can’t be sure. Cue this post.

Methodology

The following analysis uses visitor data sourced from www.farandwide.com.

Results

Top 50 attractions by visitor numbers

Annual visitor rank	Attraction	City	Country	Annual visitors (millions)
50	Nagashima Spa Land	Kuwana	Japan	5.8
48	Universal Studios Hollywood	Los Angeles	USA	5.9
48	Palace of Versailles	Paris	France	5.9
47	Bourbon Street	New Orleans	USA	6
45	Museum of Modern Art	New York	USA	6.1
45	Universal Studios Orlando	Florida	USA	6.1
43	Lincoln Memorial	Washington	USA	6.2
43	Lake Mead	Nevada	USA	6.2
41	British Museum	London	England	6.7
41	Disney Hong Kong	Hong Kong	Hong Kong	6.7
39	Lotte World	Seoul	South Korea	6.8
39	Everland Resort	South Korea	South Korea	6.8
36	National Air and Space Museum	Washington	USA	7
36	Eiffel Tower	Paris	France	7
36	Victoria Peak	Hong Kong	Hong Kong	7
35	Ocean Park Hong Kong	Hong Kong	Hong Kong	7.4
34	Disney California Adventure Park	Anaheim	USA	7.7
33	Islands of Adventure, Universal	Orlando	USA	7.9
32	Smithsonian National Museum of History	Washington	USA	8
31	Sydney Opera House	Sydney	Australia	8.2
30	Pier 39	San Francisco	USA	8.5
28	South Street Seaport	New York	USA	9
28	Great Wall of China	Beijing	China	9
26	Navy Pier	Chicago	USA	9.2
26	Musée du Louvre	Paris	France	9.2
25	Great Smoky Mountains National Park	Tennessee	USA	9.6
24	Universal Studios Japan	Osaka	Japan	9.7
22	Disney Hollywood Studios	Bay Lake	USA	9.9
22	Disney’s Animal Kingdom	Orlando	USA	9.9
20	Pike Place Market	Seattle	USA	10
20	Plaza de la Constitución	Mexico City	Mexico	10
19	Tsim Sha Tsui Promenade	Hong Kong	Hong Kong	10.1
18	Sacre Coeur	Paris	France	10.5
17	Epcot Park	Orlando	USA	11
16	Disneyland Paris	Paris	France	11.2
15	Tokyo Disney Sea	Tokyo	Japan	12.6
14	Golden Gate Park	San Francisco	USA	13
13	Notre-Dame Cathedral	Paris	France	13.6
12	Tokyo Disney Resort	Tokyo	Japan	14.8
11	Grand Bazaar	Istanbul	Turkey	15
10	Forbidden City	Beijing	China	15.3
9	Disneyland Park	Anaheim	USA	15.9
8	Walt Disney World Magic Kingdom	Orlando	USA	17.5
7	Faneuil Hall	Boston	USA	18
6	Grand Central Station	New York	USA	21.6
5	Niagara Falls	USA and Canada	USA, Canada	22.5
4	Union Station	Washington	USA	32.8
3	Central Park	New York	USA	37.5
2	Times Square	New York	USA	39.2
1	The Strip	Las Vegas	USA	39.6

View full list.

Countries with the most attractions in the top 50

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27 of the top 50 attractions are in the US, cumulatively attracting 379 million visitors each year — this is more visitors than all other countries attractions in the top 50 put together!

tl;dr

9 of the top 10 attractions around the world are in the United States, with The Strip in Las Vegas topping the list. In total 27 of the top 50 attractions are in the US, cumulatively attracting 379 million visitors each year.

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

Gift Buying Guide: The Best Private Jets Under $500 Million

I’m fascinated by airline operations. Many major airlines have fleet sizes upwards of 800 aircraft. Now consider many of these planes operate non-stop, requiring hundreds-of-thousands of litres of fuel for each journey, and a small army of staff to keep running, operating costs can quickly add up.

Recently reading an article titled, “Qatar’s emir ‘gives $500m private jet to Turkey” (a Boeing 747-8i), I started exploring the costs of operating your own private jet.

With Christmas quickly approaching, I’ve created a (tongue in cheek) buyers guide for private jets. When a pair of socks won’t cut it, perhaps a private jet will suffice?

Methodology

The following analysis uses aircraft data (including list prices, number of seats, and fuel efficiency) sourced from aircraftcompare.com. Jet fuel prices used to calculate fuel costs were obtained from IATA in October 2018.

Analysis

List Cost of Private Jets

Download chart.

Price Rank	Manufacturer	Model	Price Ave (millions) USD
58	Cessna	Citation	5
57	Cessna	Citation M2	5
56	Cessna	Citation CJ2	6
55	Embraer	Phenom 300	7
54	Cessna	Citation CJ3	7
	…	…	…
5	Airbus	A340 Private Jet	236
4	Boeing	777 VIP	280
3	Boeing	747 8 VIP	295
2	Boeing	New Air Force One	390
1	Airbus	A380 Private Jet	402

View full list.

The A380, the largest commercial passenger plane with a potential capacity of 900 passengers, is offered by Airbus as a private jet. The company has reported 5 orders, potentially worth almost $2 billion. Many articles detailing the incredible configurations of private A380’s exist online (including flying garages).

At the other end of the scale, smaller regional private aircraft with ranges below 5,000 kilometers (London to New York is 5,567 km) can be purchased for under $10 million.

List Cost Per Seat of Private Jets

Download chart.

Rank cost per seat	Manufacturer	Model	Cost per seat (millions) USD
57	Cessna	Citation M2	0.70
56	Cessna	Citation	0.95
55	Boeing	BBJ	0.99
54	Cessna	Citation Encore	1.09
53	Embraer	Phenom 300	1.11
…	…	…	…
5	Boeing	New Air Force One	3.82
4	Airbus	A340 Private Jet	3.93
3	Dassault	Falcon 7X	4.78
2	Boeing	777 VIP	5.71
1	Boeing	747 8 VIP	9.22

View full list.

The current Air Force One (a highly modified Boeing 747) has room for 102 passengers. Each seat, based on the list cost of $390 million, is worth $3.82 million each. A modified Boeing 747 8 VIP with an average cost of $295 million has just 32 seats, making it the private aircraft with the highest cost per seat at $9.22 million each!

Only 3 planes have cost per seat less than $1 million. The Boeing BBJ, is the only mid to long-range jet (range 7,223km) with a cost per seat less than $1 million.

Private Jet Fuel Efficiency

Download chart.

Fuel cost p / litre / pax rank	Manufacturer	Model	Fuel cost p / litre USD	Fuel cost p / litre / pax USD
51	Boeing	Business Jet	$1.57	$0.02
50	Boeing	BBJ	$2.16	$0.03
49	Dassault	Falcon 2000 LX	$0.76	$0.04
48	Dassault	Falcon 900LX	$0.80	$0.04
47	Dassault	Falcon 2000 DX	$0.82	$0.04
…	…	…	…	…
5	Embraer	Legacy 450	$1.12	$0.14
4	Airbus	A340 Private Jet	$8.62	$0.14
3	Boeing	777 VIP	$7.39	$0.15
2	Embraer	Phenom 300	$1.08	$0.18
1	Boeing	747 8 VIP	$8.62	$0.27

View full list.

Don’t forget, even after spending millions on a jet, you’re going to need to fuel it too (along with all the other ongoing costs). The most fuel efficient jet in our list is the Boeing Business Jet. Assuming it flies at full capacity (63), each passenger will cost $0.02 per kilometre they travel. In contrast, each passenger on a 747 8 VIP will cost $0.27 per kilometre they travel (max pax 32).

The A380 Private Jet costing $10.35 per kilometre to fly and Air Force One costing $8.62 per kilometre to fly are much more fuel efficient when compared to the 747 8 VIP because they all have the potential to carry significantly more passengers (both over 100).

Improvements

In some cases, the aircraft pricing data seems slightly inaccurate (perhaps out-of-date). For example, Boeing and Airbus publish the list prices of aircraft on their website. The lists do not include private jets, but in some cases the private jet cost is lower than the commercial (which does not appear correct). As such, the accuracy of this analysis would be improved if pricing and specifications were obtained directly from the manufacturers, if possible.

tl;dr

Long-range private jets (range greater than 10,000km) can be purchased for upwards of $39 million (Gulfstream V) to $402 million (Airbus A380 Private Jet). Don’t forget the operating costs though. An A380 will cost around $160,000 to fuel.

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

The Billion Dollar Airline Routes

I like to board last. I’ve never understood the appeal of being on the plane any longer than I need too (I’m yet to travel in business class).

A lot of my travel is international, and it often involves flying on the giants of the sky, including Boeing 747s (not for much longer) and the huge Airbus A380.

As I waited to board an A380 on a trip to San Francisco from London this year I did some back of the napkin (literally) calculations at the departure gate. Assuming the 469 seats on the flight were occupied sold at the approximate cost I paid for the ticket ($1000), equals a potential ticket revenue for that flight of $469,000 for the airline. Bear in mind, it is estimated an A380 costs between $26,000 – $29,000 per hour to operate (and the flight is almost 12 hours)!

Clearly my calculation is far from accurate. Though it got me thinking, with multiple flights being operated daily throughout the year, some routes might be generating billions of dollars in revenue yearly.

Methodology

OAG leverages the world’s largest network of air travel data to provide accurate, timely, actionable digital information and applications to the world’s airlines, airports, government agencies and travel-related service companies.

The company produced a report in February 2018 titled: “Key Facts Behind the World’s Busiest Routes“. It details the world’s busiest trunk routes in terms of the volume of flights that operate on them. For each of the 20 routes the report lists various statistics for each route from passenger numbers to average route length.

To estimate route revenue I used Skyscanner (on 04/09/2018) to calculate the cheapest economy return flight (5-day) for the 20 routes 6 months into the future (04/03/2018 – 08/03/2018).

Using these statistics, I performed the following analysis.

The average stage length for the 20 routes is 1384.05km. 19 of the 20 routes could be considered short-haul flights (below 2,562km). The only long-haul route (cross continent) is London (LHR) to New York (JFK) with an average stage length of 5,536km.

1 of the routes operates in North America / Europe, 1 in the Middle East, 2 of the routes are in Europe, 2 in North America, and 14 in Asia.

Results

Aircraft used on routes

Download chart.

The choice of aircraft is an important one. Newer aircraft are more fuel efficient, others can fly longer distances.

19 of top 20 busiest routes use Airbus A318/319/320/321 aircraft. Given the majority of the routes (17) all operate outside North America (Boeing’s largest market) this is unsurprising.

The Boeing 737 still proves popular 38 years since it first rolled off the production line (15 operating). Interestingly, despite many routes being considered short-haul, the Airbus A380, with upwards of 469 seats, is operated on 6 routes.

Route revenues

Download chart.

Unsurprisingly the longest, and most expensive ($693) route by lowest ticket price (New York JFK – London LHR) generates the most revenue (over $2 billion dollars). The route carries 3,049,370 passengers yearly (ranked 8th by passengers of all routes) with 3,651,659 available. That is a is a passenger load factor of 84% (above the average load factor of 80% for all routes).

The other two routes that generate more than $1 billion are Hong Kong – Taipei ($1.52 billion) and Soekarno-Hatta International Airport – Singapore ($1.06 billion).

Route revenues for airlines with largest market share

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British Airways is the largest operator on the New York JFK – London (42% of all flights) and generates an estimated revenue of $887,549,632.20. Assuming the average ticket cost is 20% higher than the lowest price I found (very likely) would mean this is a $1 billion route for BA. This is almost double the earnings of the two largest airlines on the second and third highest revenue generating routes.

Revenue per km

Download chart.

Given the comparatively short distance between Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (Jakarta) – Singapore (880km) and large passenger revenue $1,519,775,162.00) means it generates the most revenue per kilometre flown ($63.25). Compare that to Soekarno-Hatta International Airport – Kuala Lumpur (1,127km) which generates just $5.82 per kilometre.

Improvements

Most of the calculations in this post rely on accurate average ticket prices for routes. Unfortunately I was limited to using SkyScanner to estimate average prices. The biggest improvement to this analysis would be to include accurate ticket revenues.

tl;dr

New York JFK – London LHR potentially generates $2 billion dollars in revenue from ticket sales each year.

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

The Worlds Fastest Growing Cities

Hunched around the contours of the tube carriage at 8:45AM on a cold winter morning I begin to question my decision to travel into Central London. The underground platforms at Waterloo Station are ten people deep, most suffering from colds and coughs, only made worse by the drastic increase in temperature that results when thousands of people are crammed into a small space.

It’s not all bad. London is one of the greatest cities I know. Though at times it’s sheer size can be overwhelming. On these occasions I long for the peace and quite of the countryside. That said, London is relatively small and its population sparse, though these facts offer little consolation when crammed inside of a tube carriage.

The worlds cities are set to grow rapidly over the next decade. In China new cities appear overnight with young people flocking to them for work and leisure at an astounding rate.

In 2016, an estimated 54.5 per cent of the world’s population lived in urban settlements.By 2030, urban areas are projected to house 60 per cent of people globally and one in every three people will live in cities with at least half a million inhabitants.

In this post I take a look at the cities that have grown the fastest since the Millennium, and those that are set to see the fastest growth rate over the next 15 years.

Methodology

The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) of the United Nations Secretariat has the task of estimating and projecting levels and trends of populations for all the countries of the world.

In 2016 they published a report titled, The Worlds Cities in 2016, in which they looked at the historic (2000), current (2016), and future (2030) populations of 476 cities. The data from this was used for all analysis in this post.

Results

Cities in 2016

Download chart.

Rank 2016 population	Country or area	City	City Statistical concept	2016 City population (000’s)
1	Japan	Tokyo	Metropolitan area	38140
2	India	Delhi	Urban Agglomeration	26454
3	China	Shanghai	City Proper	24484
4	India	Mumbai (Bombay)	Urban Agglomeration	21357
5	Brazil	São Paulo	Metropolitan area	21297

Full ranking.

In 2016, an estimated 54.5% of the world’s population lived in urban settlements. During 2016 there were 31 cities with more than 10 million people, 8 cities with more than 20 million people, and 1 city, Tokyo, with more than 30 (almost 40) million people, 38.1 million people.

Fastest growing cities since 2000

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2000-2016 growth rank	Country or area	City	City Statistical concept	2000 City population (000’s)	2016 City population (000’s)	2000-2016 % change
1	Thailand	Samut Prakan	City Proper	389	1980	509.00
2	Indonesia	Batam	City Proper	415	1498	360.96
3	China	Xiamen	Urban Agglomeration	1416	4738	334.60
4	Burkina Faso	Ouagadougou	City Proper	921	2923	317.37
5	Nigeria	Abuja	Urban Agglomeration	833	2586	310.44

Full ranking.

The average growth rate for the 496 cities considered was about 150%. Samut Prakan, Thailand grew by over 500% — the fastest growth rate of any city. In 2016 there were just 389,000 residents, now there are almost 2 million!

Over the period, just 21 cities saw populations get smaller. Khulnam, Bangladesh shrunk by about 19%, from 1.25 million people in 2000 to slightly over 1 million in 2016.

Average growth 2000-2016 rank	Classification 1	Average growth 2000-2016
1	Africa	175.22%
2	South-Central Asia	166.69%
3	Asia	162.76%
4	Latin America and the Caribbean	131.65%
5	Oceania	123.42%
6	Europe	109.31%

Download table.

Africa’s cities grew by an average of 175% over the 16 years between 2000 – 2016, Europe’s grew by just 109%.

Fastest growing cities 2030

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2016-2030 growth rank	Country or area	City	City Statistical concept	2016 City population (000’s)	2030 City population (000’s)	2016-2030 % change
1	Niger	Niamey	City Proper	1125	2363	210.04%
2	Burkina Faso	Ouagadougou	City Proper	2923	5854	200.27%
3	United Republic of Tanzania	Dar es Salaam	Urban Agglomeration	5409	10760	198.93%
4	Mali	Bamako	City Proper	2651	5231	197.32%
5	Uganda	Kampala	Urban Agglomeration	2012	3939	195.78%

Full ranking.

By 2030, urban areas are projected to house 60 per cent of people globally and one in every three people will live in cities with at least half a million inhabitants. Two, Niamey, Niger and Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso will both double in size.

The top 20 fastest growing cities are all in Africa. Only 12 cities are expected to shrink between 2016-2030.

Average growth 2000-2016 rank	Classification 1	Average growth 2000-2016
1	Africa	158.61%
2	South-Central Asia	136.64%
3	Asia	123.35%
4	Latin America and the Caribbean	117.70%
5	Oceania	119.16%
6	Europe	105.97%

Download table.

The average growth rate will drop in all regions of the world between 2016-2030 when compared to the period 2000-2016 — although all regions will see growth. The average growth rate of all considered cities by 2030 is projected to be 128%.

Cities in 2030

Download chart.

2030 City population rank	Country or area	City	City Statistical concept	2030 City population (000’s)
1	Japan	Tokyo	Metropolitan area	37190
2	India	Delhi	Urban Agglomeration	36060
3	China	Shanghai	City Proper	30751
4	India	Mumbai (Bombay)	Urban Agglomeration	27797
5	China	Beijing	Urban Agglomeration	27706

Full ranking.

The largest cities in 2030 are likely to remain largely unchanged in order when compared to 2016. Beijing, China enters the top 5 replacing Sao Paulo, Brazil which grow in population by 130% and 110% respectively.

tl;dr

The worlds cities are expected to grow by an average of 128% between 2016-2030 — that’s 25% slower than between 2000-2016. African countries will grow the fastest. Niamey, Niger will see the largest population growth of around 210% with Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso also doubling in size (+201%).

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

The Best Cities for Travelling via Public Transportation

Despite the increase of Uber and similar on-demand ride services in most major cities, public transportation still serves millions of locals and tourists every year.

Living in London it is easy to take public transportation for granted. With tube lines snaking across the city, bus stops on almost every road, and a cycle hire scheme for those rare sunny days it is easy to venture across the UK’s capital without wondering how you’ll get to a destination.

Though in other larger cities, even though public transportation systems do exist, they are often sparse and serve a seemingly small population. For me this is especially true of cities in America. In San Francisco I find it generally easier and sometimes cheaper to take an Uber over the BART.

Having recently returned from the America, this thought sparked an idea for a post. Which cities have the best public transportation networks?

Methodology

Wikipedia users have curated a list of metro systems around the world. The data includes; date the system was first opened, the size of the network, the number of stations and yearly ridership figures. In total 177 metro systems are listed.

I also collected population data for a cities metro area from Wikipedia to compare against yearly ridership figures.

Results

The oldest networks

Age rank	City	Country	Name	Year opened
1	London	United Kingdom	London Underground	1890
2	Budapest	Hungary	Budapest Metro	1896
2	Glasgow	United Kingdom	Glasgow Subway	1896
4	Chicago	United States	Chicago “L”	1897
5	Paris	France	Paris Métro	1900

Full ranking.

The UK has the oldest network dating back to 1890 (128 years old). This is significantly below the average age of 1984 (38 years old) for all 177 networks considered. The average age figure is significantly boosted by new metro systems appearing across growing Chinese and Indian cities. In a previous post I covered how the rapid growth of Chinese high-speed rail links.

The age of each network got me thinking; will older networks be larger than their smaller counterparts? It seems logical given the additional time they have had to expand.

Age versus size

Download chart.

Perhaps surprisingly the average metro system is just 70 kilometers. Again, this figure is slightly skewed due to the new metros emerging in cities.

System Length Rank	City	Country	Name	System Length kilometers
1	Shanghai	China	Shanghai Metro	637
2	Beijing	China	Beijing Subway	599.4
3	London	United Kingdom	London Underground	402
4	Guangzhou	China	Guangzhou Metro	390.7
5	New York City	United States	New York City Subway	380.2

Full ranking.

China is home to three of the five largest metro networks with Shanghai’s system the largest at a total length of 637 kilometers. First opened in 1993 it spans 200 more kilometers than the London Underground opened over 100 years earlier.

However, length isn’t everything. As a passenger it is important that many destinations are served allowing maximum freedom to roam a city.

Length versus number of stations

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There is a linear correlation between number of stations and system length. As the size of a network grows as does the number of stations. This suggests that most metros follow a similar pattern in spacing out their stations. This is to be expected given the way cities grow and the fact that a small number of companies design and build these networks.

Rank num stations	City	Country	Name	Stations
1	New York City	United States	New York City Subway	424
2	Shanghai	China	Shanghai Metro	324
3	Seoul	South Korea	Seoul Subway (lines 1-9)	307
4	Beijing	China	Beijing Subway	306
5	Paris	France	Paris Métro	302

Full ranking.

Despite being only the fifth largest network by length, New York boasts the highest number of stations serving passengers — 100 more than Shanghai even though it is over 250 kilometers shorter in length.

This highlights another important question; how well are travelling passengers served by stations?

Stations versus passengers

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A linear correlation between stations and passengers is seen for the 161 metros there is ridership data for. 16 systems carry more than 1 billion passengers each year.

Ridership rank	City	Country	Name	Ridership	Ave pax per station
1	Beijing	China	Beijing Subway	3,660,000,000	11,960,784
2	Shanghai	China	Shanghai Metro	3,401,000,000	10,496,914
3	Seoul	South Korea	Seoul Subway (lines 1-9)	2,856,500,000	6,056,790
4	Guangzhou	China	Guangzhou Metro	2,800,000,000	14,070,352
5	Tokyo	Japan	Tokyo Metro	2,642,100,000	9,184,906

Full ranking.

Each of the top five metro systems each serve over 2.5 billion journeys a year. Beijing’s metro serves a staggering 3.66 billion journeys each year!

Despite having the most stations, 424, New York Cities Subway network carries just 1.75 billion passengers each year. Compare that to Beijing, 306 stations and over 3.6 billion passengers a year — that’s an average of 11 million people travelling through each station on the network each year.

In recent years there has been some talk of so called “white elephant” infrastructure projects being undertaken in China. Perhaps there is some truth in this for metro networks?

Passengers versus population

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There is a slight correlation comparing passengers to population.

Rank pax/pop	City	Country	Name	Metro Population	Ridership (year)	% Pop vs ridership
1	Milan	Italy	Milan Metro	1,365,156	468,300,000	34303.77%
2	Taipei	Taiwan	Taipei Metro	2,704,974	746,000,000	27578.82%
3	Munich	Germany	Munich U-Bahn	1,464,301	398,000,000	27180.20%
4	Hong Kong	China	MTR	7,409,800	1,767,100,000	23848.15%
5	New York City	United States	New York City Subway	8,175,133	1,756,800,000	21489.56%

Full ranking.

Milan’s metro system serves 34,304% more passengers each year than the metro areas total population! 22 systems see yearly ridership greater than 10,000% higher than the cities population too.

At the other end of the spectrum the Hefei Metro system in China carries around 18% of the cities population each year over its 52.4 kilometre network.

tl;dr

Despite being the 5th largest network by size, the New York City Subway comprising of 424 stations offers the most flexibility for passengers. Compared to other similarly large networks the New York Subway also has comparatively lower passenger numbers meaning less crowding onboard.

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

Where Should I Visit When I’m In [Country]?

Big cities have offer a seemingly endless lists of things to do and places to spend money. London has enough attractions to keep you busy for 16 years.

When you’re visiting a new city for a few days compromises must be made. Nowadays many of us turn to TripAdvisor to help us narrow down the places to visit based on recommendations from fellow travellers.

After realising the most popular attraction to visit in the UK (based on TripAdvisor ratings) is a Harry Potter studio tour, yes you read that correctly, I began to wonder what most attracts visitors to other countries.

Methodology

The United Nations recognised 249 countries. Using this list I turned to Tripadvisor to find the most popular attraction (“things to do”) in each of the countries. In total there was attraction data for 242 countries.

Results

Most popular attractions by type (2018)

Interactive chart.

Natural attractions are by far the most popular, from waterfalls to national parks.

Most popular attractions type by region (2018)

Interactive chart.

Looking deeper, natural attractions are the most popular in African, American and Oceanic countries. Asia’s and Europe’s rich historical past leaves historic attractions the most popular in these regions, especially Europe.

Most popular attractions by country (2018)

Interactive chart.

The natural category includes places like Canada’s Niagara Falls and Norway’s Geiranger Fjord. Meanwhile, other well known historic attractions like China’s Great Wall make the list.

Although not all of the most popular attractions in each country are what you might expect. As noted, the United Kingdom’s most popular attraction is a Harry Potter Studio tour, not one of the historic buildings I was expecting.

My favourite attraction, and now on my bucket list, is the “Door to Hell” Gas Deposit, the most popular attraction in Turkmenistan.

Improvements

Clearly TripAdvisor ratings are one way to measure popularity. A more comprehensive analysis might consider other metrics including footfall, for example.

tl;dr

Natural attractions are the most popular for visiting tourists.

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

The World Cup 2018 Numbers: Download the Dataset

The group stages are over, onto the finals! If you’re anything like me, the World Cup has occupied a significant proportion of your free time over the last two weeks.

TV coverage has seen pundits highlight interesting (and questionable) match statistics during games; kilometers covered by players in a game (I’d love to get my hands on that data) to the all-time top scorers.

This, of course, inspired me to collate a data set of my own for analysis to look at some of the numbers behind the World Cup (we already know Russian cities have the most museums for fans to visit between games)…

Analysis

Teams

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There are 32 teams from 6 continents (only Antarctica is not represented — they don’t have a team).

Players

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Excluding management and those in team support roles, for every one player in the Iceland squad there are 13,431 people in the Icelandic population. One pundit noted that most people have a second-degree connection that links them to an Icelandic player! Brazil has the biggest pool of talent to choose from with one player per 8.75 million people.

Stadiums

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The Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, where the final will be held, is by far the largest stadium with a capacity of 81,000. The average capacity of all stadiums is 48,427. Many of the stadiums are home to second division Russian teams including the Fisht Stadium, Sochi (47,700 capacity), Volgograd Arena, Volgograd (45,568), Nizhny Novgorod Stadium, Nizhny Novgorod Stadium (45,331), and the Mordovia Arena, Saransk (44,442) — larger than many English Premier League grounds.

Download chart.

The median age of all the World Cup stadiums is about one year (median first opened date is 2017.5). Only two were opened prior to 2013; the Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow (opened 1956, redeveloped for 2018 World Cup) and Ekaterinburg Arena, Ekaterinburg (1953).

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Costing a rumoured $1.5 billion USD to build, the St Petersburg Stadium, St Petersburg hosting 7 games works out to cost $214.3 million per game. The average cost per game across all 12 stadiums and 64 games is $79.9 million.

The total spent on stadiums for the 2018 World Cup alone (remember all but one were opened or refurbished in the last 5 years) is a staggering $5.3 billion dollars!

Download chart.

Looking at costs in more details, based on the number of games a stadium will host and each stadiums capacity, each seat at the St Petersburg Stadium, St Petersburg works out to cost $3,145.06 (hosting 7 games at a maximum capacity of 68,134). The Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow is the most cost effective costing $705.42 per seat (7 games / capacity 81,006) — a figure still well below average ticket costs as we’ll see below…

Ticket Prices

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Tickets to the World Cup 2018 range from $22.40 to $1094.28. Russian residents receive a healthy discounts on tickets, meaning they could follow a team to the final (7 games) for just $370.92 (it would cost them slightly more to watch Russia because the opening game has a premium ticket cost). Those wanting the best category of ticket would pay $3,072.96 to watch their team make it all the way to the final (assuming they do!).

Weather

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Whilst I’m lying on my sofa, players are running over 8 kilometers per game in searing heat. The average daily highs across all stadiums is 24°C with lows of 15°C. Surprisingly, there is an 50% chance of rain daily, on average. In Ekaterinburg, the likelihood is as high as 66%.

Improvements

With more time, I’d like to explore the distances teams have to travel between stadiums and their training sites.

via: Chapman Freeborn

Chapman Freeborn, an aircraft charter company, have conducted such an analysis for the group games. They found Egypt covered 7,316 miles travelling to their group games. Compare that to Colombia who travelled just 1,158 miles.

As noted at the start of this post, I would also like to obtain in-game statistics from FIFA to perform a more micro analysis of games.

tl;dr

The World Cup is expensive; the total cost of stadiums hosting the 2018 World Cup is a staggering $5.3 billion dollars!

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

Become a French Resident for Only 10 Million Euros

Visa requirements to stay in a country for longer than one month can be very restrictive. If you want to work in another country things only become more complicated.

Many countries implement point based immigration systems, others also offer random lotteries for citizenship. As the old adage states; “money talks”. Indeed, when it comes to citizenship this holds true. In a previous post I took a look at the staggering amount some countries earn through tourism visas alone.

An increasing number of countries offer citizenship for investors with big pockets looking for a new home. Such schemes have come under much controversy with many people using their new found citizenships to avoid taxes in their former home countries.

In this post I take a look at the market for citizenships, and see if I too could afford to purchase a citizenship in any of these countries (let me dream!).

Methodology

There are a number of significant differences between the terms ‘residency’ and ‘citizenship’. A citizen of a country, nation or state has rights that are not conferred on a resident. Citizens can confidently expect that they will hold that status, and those rights, for life. In addition, citizenship status can be inherited by children and grandchildren merely by proving, if they were born outside of that country, that they are close filial relatives of the citizen.

Residents have no such clear-cut security. Residency status can also, depending on the laws of that country, be separated into temporary and permanent residency. Some countries, such as the United Kingdom (UK) do not even acknowledge the term ‘residency’ but define it as ‘indefinite leave to remain’.

The IMF has produced a list of 23 countries that offer residency and citizenship programs. Using this list I examined each offering and its restrictions, for example, the time required in country to remain a resident in the program. In each country, the requirements to enter a program wildly differ. In some countries a real-estate investment is allowed, in others an investment in a business is required. To simplify things the list simply considers the cheapest investment vehicle to enter each program.

To try and understand the value of each of the programs to potential investors I compared the cost required to invest against each countries GDP in 2017, also produced by the IMF.

Results

Cost of citizenship / residency

Interactive chart.

Rank cost	Country	Cost USD	Shengen	Type
23	Latvia	$43,178	Y	Residency
22	Dominica	$100,000	N	Citizenship
19	Antigua and Barbuda	$250,000	N	Citizenship
…	…	…	…	…
3	Cyprus	$3,084,150	Y	Citizenship
2	Australia	$3,941,105	N	Residency
1	France	$12,336,600	Y	Residency

Full list.

At $43,178 and offering entry into the Shengen travel zone, the Latvian residency program is a very attractive opportunity for non-EU citizens. This residency program looks incredibly cheap when compared to the French program costing $12,336,600!

Eligibility for citizenship

In many cases those who purchase a residency or even citizenship must wait some time before enjoying full rights.

Interactive chart.

Rank qual. period	Country	Shengen	Type	Cost USD	Residency Requirements	Citizenship qualifying period
18	Cyprus	Y	Citizenship	$3,084,150	0	0
18	Dominica	N	Citizenship	$100,000	0	0
18	Grenada	N	Citizenship	$250,000	0	0
18	St. Kitts and Nevis	N	Citizenship	$250,000	0	0
18	Antigua and Barbuda	N	Citizenship	$250,000	5 days / 5 years	0
…	…	…	…	…	…	…
2	Latvia	Y	Residency	$43,178	0	10
2	Spain	Y	Residency	$616,830	0	10
1	Switzerland	N	Residency	$267,012	0	12

Full table.

In 5 countries you can obtain citizenship immediately without restriction. Only one of these countries, Antigua and Barbuda, has a requirement for citizens to remain in the country — although this is just 5 days over 5 years! Four of these five countries are in the Caribbean. Though for $3,084,150, Cypriot citizenship offers immediate access with no restriction to the EU Schengen travel zone.

Investment as a percentage of GDP

Interactive chart.

Cost GDP rank	Country	Cost USD	GDP per capita USD	Cost / GDP	Shengen	Type
23	Latvia	$43,178.10	$15,402	280%	Y	Residency
22	Switzerland	$267,012.50	$80,837	330%	N	Residency
21	Canada – Prince Edward Island	$276,747.10	$44,773	618%	N	Residency
…	…	…	…	…	…	…
3	Bulgaria	$616,830.00	$7,924	7784%	N	Residency
2	Cyprus	$3,084,150.00	$24,740	12466%	Y	Citizenship
1	France	$12,336,600.00	$39,673	31096%	Y	Residency

Full list.

In Latvia, citizens generate $15,402.00 each to the economy. A residency visa will cost you 280% more than this. If you think this is unreasonable, consider French residency where the cost is 31,096% higher than GDP per person.

Improvements

As noted, segmenting each program further by investment type would provide additional insight.

For comparison, other income metrics beyond GDP would be make for a interesting analysis. Each countries tax rates would be a good example.

tl;dr

Latvian residency can be purchased for just $43,178 and provides non-EU citizens with unrestricted access to the Schengen travel zone. Dominica offers the cheapest citizenship program, costing $100,000 to become a fully fledged citizen.

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.

Mexicans on Minimum Wage Have to Work for 5 Weeks to Afford a Passport

Last year I needed to renew my passport. As a regular traveller I opted for the “jumbo” 48 page option with the aim of filling them all with a stamp in the 10 year period, a task that will likely be made easier when the UK leaves Europe. Sigh.

In a previous post we covered the cost of obtaining visas to enter countries, assuming your passport didn’t entitle you to visa-free entry. While some travel visa fees are eye-watering, the high cost of renewing my passport (£85.59 for the jumbo version) left me wondering how many people simply can not afford this luxury around the world, especially when factoring in the cost for a family.

While travel costs continues to decrease, it appears the cost of documents allowing you to do so is going the other way. In this post I examine the affordability of passports around the world.

Methodology

In 2010 the UK government published a comparison of costs for citizens to apply for passports in their native country.

Using this list of 52 countries I searched each governments website for the costs associated with renewing an adult passport. The definition of “adult” varies by country. In each case I selected the largest age group covering the population between 18-65. Given many countries offered different rates for passports, I collected prices for passports with the longest validity. When more than one variation was available, for example number of pages, I selected the cheapest option for comparison.

I used a list of minimum wage data by country published on Wikipedia to compare passport costs to income. 11 countries did not have a clear minimum wages and these countries were therefore omitted from the analysis.

Results

Passport costs (2018)

Interactive chart.

Rank USD	Issuing Country	Cost USD	Adult: Validity of Standard Pasport (years)
41	Indonesia	$11.43	10
40	India	$23.24	10
39	Bulgaria	$25.37	5
…	…	…	…
3	Japan	$150.06	10
2	Turkey	$177.47	10
1	Australia	$223.43	10

Full list.

Indonesian citizens can buy a passport for just $11.43 USD. This might leave many Australian citizens wondering why they have to pay $223.43 USD. The mean average cost for a passport of the 41 countries considered is $72.48 USD.

Passport costs by year (2018)

The passports above have varying lengths of validity, from five to ten years. I analysed cost per year of each passport to get a better understanding of value.

Interactive chart.

Rank cost p/yr usd	Issuing Country	Cost /yr USD	Adult: Validity of Standard Pasport (years)
41	Indonesia	$1.14	10
40	India	$2.32	10
39	China	$2.84	10
…	…	…	…
3	Greece	$20.94	5
2	France	$21.34	5
1	Australia	$22.34	10

Full list.

When examining passport costs by year the costs do not seem as prohibitive. Even at the most expensive end of the spectrum the Australian passport works out to cost $22.34 per year over 10 years. Perhaps passport authorities should consider charging yearly for passports.

Passport costs vs income (2018)

While cost of a passport is an important metric. It does not consider the wealth of the country and how much of a persons income is required to purchase a passport for travel. Using minimum wage data it is possible to get an idea on how the lowest paid workers must pay for the luxury to travel internationally.

Interactive chart.

Rank affordability	Issuing Country	Cost USD	Min wage USD	Hours worked for passport	Weeks (40hrs) for passport
41	Luxembourg	$62.02	$13.05	4.75	0.12
40	Spain	$32.25	$5.60	5.76	0.14
39	Germany	$74.43	$9.99	7.45	0.19
…	…	…	…	…	…
3	Japan	$150.06	$1.33	112.83	2.82
2	Russian Federation	$62.05	$0.53	117.07	2.93
1	Mexico	$96.93	$0.49	197.81	4.95

Full list.

A Luxembourgian on minimum wage will have to work just under 5 hours to buy a passport. Compare that to Mexico where a worker on minimum would have to work almost 200 hours to buy a passport — that’s 5 working weeks!

Improvements

Minimum wage is concept that differs by country and is not necessarily the most accurate measure of affordability. It would be useful to compare other income metrics to passport cost, such as median or mean income.

tl;dr

The Australian passport is the most expensive to purchase, however, the Mexican passport is the most expensive when measured on minimum wage affordability.

Get the Data

Get all the data used in this blog post on Google Sheets.